Decline of the West? An IPE perspective on the multiplex world order and the ‘geoeconomic turn’

Abstract

The concept of multiplexity describes an emerging world order in which non-western powers play an increasingly important role and US-centred western dominance is waning. Given the centrality of ‘the West’ to economic globalization since the Second World War, the geoeconomic turn and shift towards more nationally-oriented economic strategies in the 2010s and early 2020s could be considered a development that further accelerates the emergence of a less globalized and less western-centric world order. This article empirically re-examines these trends from an international political economy perspective. At odds with the deglobalization thesis, our assessment shows that across the spheres of trade, production and finance, western-led globalization continues to thrive. In terms of a redistribution of power, we find relative shifts in global economic power away from the United States—and the West more broadly—to be mostly restricted to international trade and largely concentrated towards China, whereas the West's structural power over global production and finance remains formidable. At the same time, China is rapidly catching up in some critical technologies, which in turn might account for the West's recent attempts to constrain China in its technological ambitions. From this perspective, we propose that the hidden purpose of the West's deglobalization agenda might not be a retreat from globalization, but an attempt to push back against and exclude potential rivals from the system. Hence, rather than accelerating, the geoeconomic turn may in fact be aimed at preventing a transition towards a more multiplex order.