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Political Pressure on the Fed

Thomas Drechsel

The Review of Economic Studies2026https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdag030article
FT50AJG 4*ABDC A*
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

Abstract This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify variation in political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I build a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political pressure, I develop a narrative identification strategy based on President Nixon's pressure on Fed Chair Burns. I exploit this narrative through restrictions on a structural vector autoregression that includes the President-Fed interaction data. I find that political pressure to ease monetary policy (i) increases the price level strongly and persistently, (ii) does not lead to positive effects on real economic activity, (iii) contributed to inflationary episodes outside of the Nixon era, and (iv) transmits differently from a typical monetary policy easing, by having a stronger effect on inflation expectations. Quantitatively, increasing political pressure by half as much as Nixon, for six months, raises the price level by about 7% over the following decade.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdag030

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@article{thomas2026,
  title        = {{Political Pressure on the Fed}},
  author       = {Thomas Drechsel},
  journal      = {The Review of Economic Studies},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdag030},
}

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Political Pressure on the Fed

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.