arbiter
JournalsAccount

The macroeconomics of automation

Hideki Nakamura et al.

Journal of Economic Growth2026https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-026-09265-xarticle
AJG 3ABDC A*
Weight
0.50

Abstract

This paper develops a theory in which the degree of automation in the aggregate economy emerges endogenously as an equilibrium outcome and can be inferred from standard macroeconomic data. We define the degree of automation as the share of tasks performed by capital rather than labor and embed it in a task-based production framework with endogenous technology adoption. Aggregating task-level decisions generates a CES production function in which the economy-wide degree of automation emerges endogenously. This structure provides a transparent mapping from standard macroeconomic observables, such as the capital-labor ratio, output per worker, and the elasticity of substitution, into the degree of automation, allowing automation to be measured without relying on technology-specific indicators. Applying the framework to Japanese manufacturing industries, we show that automation increased through capital deepening even during periods of slow productivity growth.

Open via your library →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-026-09265-x

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{hideki2026,
  title        = {{The macroeconomics of automation}},
  author       = {Hideki Nakamura et al.},
  journal      = {Journal of Economic Growth},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-026-09265-x},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

The macroeconomics of automation

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.