Structured Uncertainty as a Framework for Developing Analytical Capabilities: Evidence from Systems Analysis and Design Education

Abstract

Many analytic courses teach methods in settings where problems are already defined. Professional practice differs. Analysts must define problems, justify choices, and revise interpretations while working with stakeholders under uncertainty. This study examines how such capability develops through a three-year investigation of an undergraduate Systems Analysis and Design course. It introduces structured uncertainty as a course design approach that preserves instructional structure while requiring students to assume responsibility for defining and justifying problems. Using data from three cohorts taught between 2023 and 2025 (75 students, 481 reflections), the study compares learning trajectories under different instructional conditions. Drawing on Problem Framing Theory and Legitimate Peripheral Participation, the findings show that under structured uncertainty, when students assumed interpretive responsibility early, analytical capability persisted and integrated over time. When responsibility was largely limited to executing predefined analyses, early gains in problem framing weakened and integration did not occur. The results show that analytical capability develops through the interaction of professional identity, interpretive reasoning, and evaluation of value. While situated in Systems Analysis and Design, the findings offer a transferable design logic for analytic courses that prepare students for professional judgment under uncertainty.