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No evidence of first-mover advantage in a large sample of penalty shootouts

David Pipke

Journal of Economic Psychology2025https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2025.102816article
AJG 2ABDC A
Weight
0.46

Abstract

• Equivalence tests reject significant first-mover effects in shootouts. • Similar results emerge in soccer and ice hockey shootouts. • Controlling for odds-based team ability does not affect conclusions. • No first-mover advantage in youth or women’s subgroups was found. Conflicting evidence exists regarding a first-mover advantage in soccer shootouts, where increased pressure on second-moving teams may lead to choking. While some studies support this claim, others refute it, with the lack of consensus likely due to limited sample sizes. An analysis of around 7,000 soccer penalty shootouts and 74,000 kicks finds no evidence of a first- or second-mover advantage in winning probability. Equivalence testing further rejects any deviation greater than 1.8 percentage points from a 50% win probability for first-kicking teams. A parallel analysis of ice hockey shootouts finds no significant advantage or disadvantage for either the first- or second-moving team.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2025.102816

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@article{david2025,
  title        = {{No evidence of first-mover advantage in a large sample of penalty shootouts}},
  author       = {David Pipke},
  journal      = {Journal of Economic Psychology},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2025.102816},
}

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No evidence of first-mover advantage in a large sample of penalty shootouts

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Evidence weight

0.46

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.37 × 0.4 = 0.15
M · momentum0.60 × 0.15 = 0.09
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.