Development and implementation of the green lending ecosystem: bank-level factors, volumes, stability channels and short-term forecasts (2015–2024)
Arifioglu Abdurrahman Zeki et al.
What the paper says
Type of the article: Research Article AbstractGreen lending growth can support bank resilience and is therefore relevant to Kazakhstan’s pathway to carbon neutrality by 2060. The study created a panel of banking years (2015–2024) and assessed the relationships between banks’ regulatory compliance, digitalization, borrowers’ ESG performance, and green loan volumes using multivariate models. The research provides short-term forecasts using compressed ARIMAX and policy scenarios. Moreover, 20 purposively selected semi-structured interviews (commercial bank executives, SME owners, customers, and policy experts) and a national survey of 850 adult bank customers / SME owners led by the author were added. Across preferred specifications, regulatory eligibility and borrower ESG are consistently positive: policy support is associated with KZT 7-9 billion more green credit per bank year, and each one-point increase in borrower ESG is associated with KZT 0.34-0.38 billion higher volumes. Digitalization is positive but model-sensitive, strengthening within-bank variation; larger banks extend more green credit, consistent with capacity advantages. The results are interpreted through three stability channels: improved screening/asset quality, portfolio tilt toward taxonomy-aligned exposures, and funding access without making solvency claims. Scenario paths suggest aggregate green lending could reach KZT 80-96 billion by 2027 under aligned policy-ESG-digital conditions; under weak support, it may stagnate near KZT 49-55 billion. Findings motivate the development of a binding taxonomy with standardized disclosures, a national ESG scorecard registry, and inclusive digital rails to enhance SME and rural uptake.
Evidence weight
Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40
| F · citation impact | 0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20 |
| M · momentum | 0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07 |
| V · venue signal | 0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03 |
| R · text relevance † | 0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20 |
† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.