Withering FOIP? Japan’s Evolving Indo-Pacific Vision from Kishida to Ishiba

What the paper says

Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) has become one of the most important strategic narratives in its foreign policy, yet it has not developed in a linear manner. Under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the government advanced detailed plans for FOIP while also introducing a related concept, the “Free and Open International Order” (FOIO). As FOIO gained visibility, scholars debated whether this shift diluted FOIP’s achievements or whether situating FOIP within a broader FOIO framework was appropriate. However, no systematic analysis has clarified the nature, distinctions, or strategic implications of the two terms, leaving key questions unanswered: how FOIP has evolved, why FOIO emerged, what links the concepts, and whether FOIO risks marginalizing FOIP. This article argues, employing the concept of “tactical hedging,” that FOIP remains strategically important despite FOIO’s rise. At the same time, global geostrategic shifts—particularly the Ukraine War and the Gaza conflict—have redirected Japan’s orientation from Indo-Pacific coalition-building toward closer alignment with the United States and other like-minded partners, a trend evident at the 2023 G7 Hiroshima Summit. Although FOIP and FOIO share the overarching goal of supporting a rules-based order, their coexistence produces conceptual ambiguity, underscoring the need for greater clarity to guide Japan’s strategic choices.