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Blockchain Based Prediction Markets

Patrick G. Buckley

Journal of Prediction Markets2025https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v18i3.2182article
AJG 1
Weight
0.37

What the paper says

Prediction markets are a form of collective intelligence that leverage market mechanisms to incentivise large numbers of individuals to make forecasts about future uncertain events. Since their origin in the 1980’s, they have been the subject of a small but steady stream of academic research. Proponents suggest that they have several advantages over comparable information aggregation mechanisms such as polls or expert groups. More recently the rise of blockchain, cryptocurrencies and decentralised finance (DeFi) has excited new interest in prediction markets. The characteristics of this triad of technologies has particular resonances with prediction markets. This research identifies the potential impact of blockchain technology on prediction market design and performance with a view to informing a research agenda to investigate those potential impacts.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v18i3.2182

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@article{patrick2025,
  title        = {{Blockchain Based Prediction Markets}},
  author       = {Patrick G. Buckley},
  journal      = {Journal of Prediction Markets},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v18i3.2182},
}

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Blockchain Based Prediction Markets

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Evidence weight

0.37

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.53 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.