arbiter
JournalsPricingAccount

Betting (In)Efficiency after Football Coaching Replacements in Brazil

Matheus Galdino et al.

International Journal of Sport Finance2025https://doi.org/10.32731/ijsf.202.052025.02article
AJG 1ABDC C
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

This study analyzes how the sports betting market responds to changes of head coaches in Brazilian football using data from 11 seasons (2010-2020), including 4,180 official league games and 379 within-season coaching replacements. We examine the return on investment (ROI) for bets to win and bets to lose for three betting strategies: when head coaches joined their teams (1) after a dismissal, (2) following a resignation, and (3) when transition coaches worked between effective replacements. The regression results show significant positive effects on ROI for bets to win for games 5, 7, and 8 following a dismissal, as well as for games 4-6 following a resignation. Betting on games 3 and 5 (after a dismissal) and games 2 and 4 (after a resignation) has a significant negative effect on ROI for bets to lose. Collectively, the findings indicate some inefficiencies of the betting market that could be exploited by bettors.

Open paper page →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.32731/ijsf.202.052025.02

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{matheus2025,
  title        = {{Betting (In)Efficiency after Football Coaching Replacements in Brazil}},
  author       = {Matheus Galdino et al.},
  journal      = {International Journal of Sport Finance},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.32731/ijsf.202.052025.02},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

Betting (In)Efficiency after Football Coaching Replacements in Brazil

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.