Decoupled? The Persistent Relevance of Marriage for Childbearing in the 2010s United States

Abstract

Prevailing theories of family change and the relevance of marriage in the United States hinge on the steady rise in births to unmarried women that unfolded during the latter half of the twentieth century and into the 2000s. This increase was concentrated among individuals with lower education levels, raising concern about inequality in children's family circumstances. Despite theoretical expectations that this trend would continue, the proportion of births to unmarried women plateaued during the 2010s. By examining trends in union formation and childbearing patterns by union status using data from the 2006‒2023 American Community Survey, this study investigates the ongoing link between marriage and childbearing underlying this plateau. Birth and marriage rates fell throughout the 2010s. However, in a reversal, married women became increasingly likely to have children relative to their unmarried peers, particularly among those with a high school education or less. These findings challenge theories about the changing social meaning of marriage, suggesting that norms regarding marriage remain robust rather than becoming deinstitutionalized. Furthermore, this study highlights how the declining marriage rate has contributed to the ongoing decline in the birth rate in the United States, implying that barriers to marriage may also create barriers to childbearing.