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Predicting Tail-Risks for the Italian Economy

Maximilian Boeck et al.

Journal of Business Cycle Research2024https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-025-00106-1article
ABDC B
Weight
0.51

What the paper says

This paper investigates the empirical performance of various econometric methods to predict tail risks for the Italian economy. It provides an overview of recent econometric methods for assessing tail risks, including Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility (BVAR-SV), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) and Gaussian processes (GP). In an out-of-sample forecasting exercise for the Italian economy, the paper assesses the point, density, and tail predictive performance for GDP growth, inflation, debt-to-GDP, and deficit-to-GDP ratios. It turns out that BVAR-SV performs particularly well for Italy, in particular for the tails. It is then used to also predict expected shortfalls and longrises for the variables of interest, and the probability of specific interesting events, such as negative growth, inflation above the 2% target, an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, or a deficit-to-GDP ratio above 3%.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-025-00106-1

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@article{maximilian2024,
  title        = {{Predicting Tail-Risks for the Italian Economy}},
  author       = {Maximilian Boeck et al.},
  journal      = {Journal of Business Cycle Research},
  year         = {2024},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-025-00106-1},
}

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Evidence weight

0.51

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.55 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.