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How Does Temporary Labor Migration Affect Voting Behavior and Political Polarization? Evidence From the USA

Dariia Mykhailyshyna

Economics & Politics2026https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70038article
AJG 2ABDC A
Weight
0.50

Abstract

In this article, I examine how temporary labor migration affects political outcomes using microdata on H2A and H2B temporary work visas. I construct a Bartik‐type instrument for the number of temporary labor migrants in each county and merge this data with election results and measures of political polarization. My results suggest that temporary labor migration decreases the vote share of anti‐immigration parties and far‐right political polarization while increasing far‐left polarization. This study contributes to the literature by demonstrating that temporary migration affects political outcomes differently from previously studied migration types.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70038

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@article{dariia2026,
  title        = {{How Does Temporary Labor Migration Affect Voting Behavior and Political Polarization? Evidence From the USA}},
  author       = {Dariia Mykhailyshyna},
  journal      = {Economics & Politics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70038},
}

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How Does Temporary Labor Migration Affect Voting Behavior and Political Polarization? Evidence From the USA

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.