Cash Settlement and Price Discovery in Futures Markets
Leo H. Chan & Donald Lien
What the paper says
This paper examines how cash settlement affects the ability of the futures market to predict future spot prices. Adopting the G ew eke feedback measure, we find that the feeder cattle futures contract improved its price discovery function after the cash settlement was adopted in August 1986. Moreover, spot and futures markets became more integrated thereafter. We also consider the case in which the cash-settled lean hog futures contract replaced the physical delivery-settled live hog futures contract in December 1996. Herein the conclusion is drastically different. After cash settlement was adopted, the futures market was less effective in price discovery. Further, spot and futures markets were more segmented.
10 citations
Evidence weight
Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40
| F · citation impact | 0.29 × 0.4 = 0.12 |
| M · momentum | 0.20 × 0.15 = 0.03 |
| V · venue signal | 0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03 |
| R · text relevance † | 0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20 |
† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.