arbiter
JournalsAccount

Heterogeneity in fertility and newborn health during the COVID-19 pandemic

Edoardo Frattola & Marco Tonello

Journal of Demographic Economics2025https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2025.10010article
ABDC B
Weight
0.50

Abstract

In this paper, we leverage newly available rich administrative data to study the heterogeneous evolution of fertility and newborn health during the pandemic. We focus on Tuscany, a representative region of Italy, which was one of the first countries to experience the severe impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020. Our findings indicate a decline in the number of births relative to the pre-pandemic trend in late 2020 and early 2021, roughly nine to twelve months after the pandemic onset. However, starting in March 2021, birth numbers consistently exceeded the pre-pandemic trend, resulting in a cumulative “baby bump” compared to the counterfactual scenario. This aggregate increase conceals significant heterogeneity across sociodemographic groups, with positive deviations entirely driven by native, educated, and employed parents. During the same period, newborn health indicators showed no signs of deterioration and, if anything, slightly improved.

Open via your library →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2025.10010

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{edoardo2025,
  title        = {{Heterogeneity in fertility and newborn health during the COVID-19 pandemic}},
  author       = {Edoardo Frattola & Marco Tonello},
  journal      = {Journal of Demographic Economics},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2025.10010},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

Heterogeneity in fertility and newborn health during the COVID-19 pandemic

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.