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Claimability in International Relations: Oil Discoveries, Territorial Claims, and Interstate Conflicts

Kyosuke Kikuta

American Political Science Review2026https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055425101366article
AJG 4*ABDC A*
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Interstate conflict is rare not primarily because states settle disputes peacefully but largely because they have no serious dispute. To address this simple but oft-neglected reality, I provide a comprehensive measurement of states’ claimable areas. Focusing on three international norms that emerged after the world wars (territorial integrity, minority protection, and maritime sovereignty), I code geographical extents of states’ claimable areas for 1946–2024. I illustrate the usefulness of this dataset by applying it to oil and conflict. By leveraging the records of over 600,000 wildcat drills, natural experiments, and difference-in-differences, I demonstrate that fuel resources increased interstate conflicts only when discovered in areas claimable to multiple states. The extensive analyses of validity, heterogeneity, and mechanisms, as well as the “most-similar” case study, provide further evidence. These findings expand the emerging literature on territorial norms by providing comprehensive, rigorous, and contemporary evidence for claimability in international relations.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055425101366

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@article{kyosuke2026,
  title        = {{Claimability in International Relations: Oil Discoveries, Territorial Claims, and Interstate Conflicts}},
  author       = {Kyosuke Kikuta},
  journal      = {American Political Science Review},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055425101366},
}

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Claimability in International Relations: Oil Discoveries, Territorial Claims, and Interstate Conflicts

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.