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An improved definition of official excess winter mortality statistics as the basis for detailed analysis and monitoring

Paul A. Smith et al.

Journal of Economic and Social Measurement2022https://doi.org/10.3233/jem-210482article
ABDC C
Weight
0.26

What the paper says

In official statistics, excess winter mortality, the number of additional deaths in a winter period, is typically defined as the difference between mortality in a winter period relative to the nonwinter periods before and after. We note two limitations of this approach: (1) the data for the period after winter is available only later, so estimates of excess winter mortality are not timely; (2) unusually high or low numbers of deaths in the non-winter periods can affect estimates. We propose an alternative statistic based on the application of standard seasonal adjustment procedures. We compare the approaches and present some illustrative analyses. The new statistic provides a more objective and timely official series, but is susceptible to revisions, which are shown to be small in practice. We recommend it as the basis of more detailed monitoring and modelling.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3233/jem-210482

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@article{paul2022,
  title        = {{An improved definition of official excess winter mortality statistics as the basis for detailed analysis and monitoring}},
  author       = {Paul A. Smith et al.},
  journal      = {Journal of Economic and Social Measurement},
  year         = {2022},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3233/jem-210482},
}

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An improved definition of official excess winter mortality statistics as the basis for detailed analysis and monitoring

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Evidence weight

0.26

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.00 × 0.4 = 0.00
M · momentum0.20 × 0.15 = 0.03
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.