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Fiscal and inflation expectations of consumers in the era of large fiscal expansions

Tomasz Łyziak et al.

Macroeconomic Dynamics2026https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100526100893article
AJG 2ABDC A
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

This study investigates the relationship between consumers’ fiscal and inflation expectations using granular survey data. After applying various methods to reduce endogeneity bias and providing several robustness checks, we show that consumers’ fiscal expectations positively affect their inflation expectations. Moreover, we demonstrate that this link is nonlinear and becomes stronger with the deterioration of the fiscal stance, particularly in response to increases in consumer expectations regarding future fiscal expansions. This novel empirical finding is especially relevant from both fiscal and monetary policy perspectives.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100526100893

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@article{tomasz2026,
  title        = {{Fiscal and inflation expectations of consumers in the era of large fiscal expansions}},
  author       = {Tomasz Łyziak et al.},
  journal      = {Macroeconomic Dynamics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100526100893},
}

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Fiscal and inflation expectations of consumers in the era of large fiscal expansions

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.