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Can Crime Be Deterred at Low Cost? Evidence From a Randomized Experiment in New York

Oludamilare Aboaba et al.

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management2026https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70092article
AJG 3ABDC A
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Can crime be deterred at low cost? We report the results of a randomized experiment of a messaging intervention designed to deter offending among individuals under parole supervision with a prior violent felony conviction or firearm arrest. The intervention consisted of a group meeting in which high‐risk paroled individuals were notified of the sanction they would face upon reoffending while being offered community resources to support re‐integration into the community. The program did not lead to a notable reduction in future arrests or create community spillover effects but did reduce parole violations by 15%. Potential mechanisms and implications for similar programs are discussed.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70092

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@article{oludamilare2026,
  title        = {{Can Crime Be Deterred at Low Cost? Evidence From a Randomized Experiment in New York}},
  author       = {Oludamilare Aboaba et al.},
  journal      = {Journal of Policy Analysis and Management},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70092},
}

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Can Crime Be Deterred at Low Cost? Evidence From a Randomized Experiment in New York

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.