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Consumer Confidence and the Unemployment Rate in New York State: A Panel Study

Arindam Mandal & Joseph M. McCollum

New York Economic Review2013article
ABDC C
Weight
0.34

What the paper says

This paper explores the short-term and long-run relationship between the unemployment rate and the consumer confidence index in five metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) of New York State. The paper utilizes a unique dataset collected by the Siena Research Institute (SRI) between 2001 and 2010. We use panel cointegration and panel error-correction models (ECM) to explore the causal relationship between these two variables. The short-run coefficients indicate a negative causality from consumer sentiment to unemployment and vice versa, indicating that unemployment and consumer sentiment reinforce each other in the short run. In the long-run, we find significant negative causality from consumer confidence to unemployment. However, the direction of causality from unemployment to consumer confidence is not significant.

8 citations

Cite this paper

@article{arindam2013,
  title        = {{Consumer Confidence and the Unemployment Rate in New York State: A Panel Study}},
  author       = {Arindam Mandal & Joseph M. McCollum},
  journal      = {New York Economic Review},
  year         = {2013},
}

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Consumer Confidence and the Unemployment Rate in New York State: A Panel Study

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Evidence weight

0.34

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.00 × 0.4 = 0.00
M · momentum0.80 × 0.15 = 0.12
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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