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Forecasting the New York State Economy with “Terraced” VARs and Coincident Indices

Eric Doviak & Sean MacDonald

New York Economic Review2010article
ABDC C
Weight
0.26

What the paper says

This paper introduces "Terraced" Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, an innovative twist on traditional VAR modeling, which allows the econometrician to simultaneously forecast both exogenous and endogenous variables and the confidence intervals around those forecasts.In an application of our Terraced VAR framework, we have estimated coincident indices of economic activity for the United States, New York State and the six largest metropolitan areas of New York State and incorporated them into Terraced VARs, which forecast the unemployment rate, total non-farm employment, real wages and average hours worked in manufacturing in those regions.

Cite this paper

@article{eric2010,
  title        = {{Forecasting the New York State Economy with “Terraced” VARs and Coincident Indices}},
  author       = {Eric Doviak & Sean MacDonald},
  journal      = {New York Economic Review},
  year         = {2010},
}

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Evidence weight

0.26

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.00 × 0.4 = 0.00
M · momentum0.20 × 0.15 = 0.03
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.