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On the trade effects of GATT/WTO membership: They are positive and large after all

Mario Larch et al.

Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue Canadienne D'Economique2025https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12755article
AJG 3ABDC A
Weight
0.52

Abstract

The existing empirical literature on impact of GATT/WTO membership on international trade is mixed. This paper contributes to solving the puzzle of “the missing GATT/WTO effects” by adhering closely to the theoretical foundations of the gravity model of trade. Capitalizing on the latest developments in the empirical trade literature and building a new and large data set covering 186 countries over the period 1980–2016, we estimate a theory‐consistent gravity equation, which includes intra‐national in addition to international trade flows. We find that joining GATT/WTO increased partial equilibrium trade between members by 140%. Our methods also deliver novel estimates of the impact of GATT/WTO on trade between members and non‐member countries, indicating an increase of 72%.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12755

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@article{mario2025,
  title        = {{On the trade effects of GATT/WTO membership: They are positive and large after all}},
  author       = {Mario Larch et al.},
  journal      = {Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue Canadienne D'Economique},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12755},
}

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Evidence weight

0.52

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.47 × 0.4 = 0.19
M · momentum0.68 × 0.15 = 0.10
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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