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A causal analysis between exports, imports and GDP per capita in the Southern African Customs Union Countries

Event P. Molepo & André Cillié Jordaan

Journal for Studies in Economics & Econometrics2024https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2024.2343723article
ABDC B
Weight
0.69

Abstract

This study investigates the direction of causality between exports, imports and GDP per capita in the SACU countries: Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Eswatini (Swaziland).The Toda-Yamamoto augmented Granger no-causality approach is applied.The study finds mixed causality results between exports, imports, and GDP per capita for the different countries.The export-led growth hypothesis is supported for Botswana and Eswatini, while import-led growth hypothesis is only confirmed in Namibia.Results suggest that a bi-directional Granger causality between exports and growth for Botswana and bi-directional Granger causality between imports and growth for Lesotho and South Africa exist.There is therefore no clear time-precedence.Finally, there is evidence of growth-led export hypothesis for Botswana, Lesotho, and South Africa.These mixed findings indicate that SACU countries should not solely dedicate their available resources to pursuing trade openness in promoting economic development but also address domestic economic reform strategies.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2024.2343723

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@article{event2024,
  title        = {{A causal analysis between exports, imports and GDP per capita in the Southern African Customs Union Countries}},
  author       = {Event P. Molepo & André Cillié Jordaan},
  journal      = {Journal for Studies in Economics & Econometrics},
  year         = {2024},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2024.2343723},
}

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Evidence weight

0.69

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.90 × 0.4 = 0.36
M · momentum0.72 × 0.15 = 0.11
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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