Integrating scenario planning with futures wheels: a sequential framework for exploring tourism futures

What the paper says

Purpose This paper proposes and illustrates a sequential, qualitative framework that combines scenario planning and the futures wheel to enrich futures-oriented research in tourism. The aim is to generate plausible long-term perspectives on tourism decarbonization and to systematically explore their implications for destinations. Design/methodology/approach The study followed a sequential exploratory design. First, expert-informed scenario planning was used to develop four plausible 2040 tourism decarbonization scenarios. These scenarios were then introduced in practitioner workshops using the futures wheel method, enabling stakeholders to collaboratively identify and map first-, second- and third-order implications associated with each future. The futures wheel workshops were conducted in New Zealand with 25 representatives from the Regional Tourism Organization and their stakeholders. Findings The combined framework provides a structured way to link scenario thinking with participatory exploration of impacts. Scenario planning ensured plausibility and breadth of futures considered, while the futures wheel workshops grounded the analysis in practitioner knowledge and highlighted interdependencies and unintended consequences. The generated implications revealed a misalignment between the systemic transformations highlighted in the scenarios and the institutional capabilities of regional destination management, with marketing-related implications perceived as feasible, while leadership and strategic planning emerged as a critical yet severely constrained response for any of the scenarios. Practical implications The approach can support destination managers and policymakers in stress-testing strategies, identifying potential vulnerabilities and co-developing more adaptive and resilient responses to the issues at hand. Beyond the specific context of tourism, the framework offers an accessible example of multi-method futures research that could be adapted in other fields. Originality/value While both methods have been applied independently in tourism futures studies, this study is one of the first to integrate them in a sequential design. The framework demonstrates how established foresight methods can be combined to enhance analytical depth and practical relevance without requiring extensive quantitative modelling.