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Protectionism and inequality

Zhe Jiang & Zinan Wang

Review of Economic Dynamics2026https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2026.101322article
AJG 3ABDC A*
Weight
0.37

Abstract

This paper studies the distributional outcomes of protectionism. First, we investigate the short-run distributional effects on workers with different skill levels by estimating structural vector autoregressions (VARs) using high-frequency measures of temporary trade barriers for the United States. We then estimate a panel VAR for a sample of thirty-six countries using the applied tariff rates. Across our empirical exercises, we find robust evidence that protectionism reduces the skill premium but increases the employment ratio between high-skilled and low-skilled workers. To rationalize these findings, we build a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model featuring asymmetric search-and-matching (SAM) frictions, capital-skill complementarity (CSC) in production, and producer dynamics. Our model results replicate the empirical patterns. Our counterfactual analysis highlights the interaction between asymmetric SAM and CSC in qualitatively shaping the distributional patterns of protectionism, with producer dynamics magnifying these effects quantitatively.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2026.101322

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@article{zhe2026,
  title        = {{Protectionism and inequality}},
  author       = {Zhe Jiang & Zinan Wang},
  journal      = {Review of Economic Dynamics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2026.101322},
}

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Evidence weight

0.37

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.53 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.