17. China’s approach to the protection of its interests overseas

What the paper says

This chapter shows the importance of understanding the decision-making process behind a country’s actions. This is done through the application of a key concept of Foreign Policy Analysis: the decision-making unit. The unit, which is composed by one or a group of top policymakers that have the authority and the power to make a foreign policy decision and commit the state’s resources to it, functions as an intervening variable between all the possible domestic and international forces – the independent variables – and the foreign policy of a country: the dependent variable. The concept of decision-making unit provides students of foreign policy with a powerful set of analytical tools to generate hypotheses and guide the empirical analysis. Empirically, this is shown by comparing the mainstream, power transition-based interpretation of China’s approach to the protection of its interests overseas with that produced if one looks at the same issue through the lens of the decision-making unit. To the contrary of what the mainstream transition-based interpretation, the analysis of dynamics within the decision-making units led by Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and Xi Jinping suggests that the military will play only a limited role in protecting Chinese assets, companies and citizens overseas. Instead, the consular protection system and cooperation with other countries will remain the pillars of China’s current policy.