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Betting Market-Based Expectations and NFL Coach Retention and Dismissal

Rodney J. Paul et al.

The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics2023https://doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v16i1.2038article
ABDC B
Weight
0.41

What the paper says

Performance compared to expectations is important in evaluation of Chief Executive Officers, managers, and coaches. In many industries, expectation metrics are difficult to estimate or obtain. In professional sports, however, futures markets exist for season performance. In many sports, such as the NFL, there exists a wagering option on season win totals. A season win total is an over/under bet on the number of wins a team will have in a given season. We utilize this market to calculate actual versus expected performance and include this in a model of coach retention. The issue of treatment discrimination of minority coaches is explored.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v16i1.2038

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@article{rodney2023,
  title        = {{Betting Market-Based Expectations and NFL Coach Retention and Dismissal}},
  author       = {Rodney J. Paul et al.},
  journal      = {The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics},
  year         = {2023},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v16i1.2038},
}

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Betting Market-Based Expectations and NFL Coach Retention and Dismissal

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Evidence weight

0.41

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.17 × 0.4 = 0.07
M · momentum0.80 × 0.15 = 0.12
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.