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Two-Step Medical Inflation Forecasts: Econometric Performance and Related Issues

Scott Gilbert & Gene A. Trevino

Journal of Forensic Economics2023https://doi.org/10.5085/jfe-492article
ABDC C
Weight
0.26

What the paper says

Abstract This paper examines medical inflation forecasting based on a two-step method proposed by Gilbert (2019), whereby the medical inflation rate is forecast via the sum of two terms: a broad inflation published forecast and a historical average of the inflation gap—this being the difference between medical inflation and broad inflation. In a simple forecasting experiment, the two-step method compares favorably to the one-step method of forecasting medical inflation based on its past values alone. Stationarity tests applied to the inflation gap mostly support stationarity, with a possible historical break. The econometric results generally support the use of the two-step method, with a limited historical window for inflation gap averaging, consistent with Gilbert (2019).

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5085/jfe-492

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@article{scott2023,
  title        = {{Two-Step Medical Inflation Forecasts: Econometric Performance and Related Issues}},
  author       = {Scott Gilbert & Gene A. Trevino},
  journal      = {Journal of Forensic Economics},
  year         = {2023},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5085/jfe-492},
}

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Two-Step Medical Inflation Forecasts: Econometric Performance and Related Issues

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Evidence weight

0.26

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.00 × 0.4 = 0.00
M · momentum0.20 × 0.15 = 0.03
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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