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Impacts of the 2023 NCAA Football Rules Changes on Scoring and the Totals Market

Evan Moore & James Francisco

Journal of Prediction Markets2026https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v19i2.2283article
AJG 1
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

The National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA) introduced rule changes prior to the 2023–24 season. According to the Football Foundation Rules Committee, “…the most significant 2023 football rule changes involve adjustments to the timing and clock rules,” with the purpose to shorten the length of the game and to “…moderately reduce the number of plays per game.” We examine the impact of these changes on actual and expected scoring during the season. The rule changes led to lower average scoring, which was not fully encompassed at the start of the season in the financial (betting) market. The early season volatility in the market subsided as the season progressed resulting in a generally efficient market.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v19i2.2283

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{evan2026,
  title        = {{Impacts of the 2023 NCAA Football Rules Changes on Scoring and the Totals Market}},
  author       = {Evan Moore & James Francisco},
  journal      = {Journal of Prediction Markets},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v19i2.2283},
}

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Impacts of the 2023 NCAA Football Rules Changes on Scoring and the Totals Market

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.