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Do High Minimum Wages Harm the Progression of Minimum Wage Workers? Evidence From the United Kingdom

Silvia Avram & Susan Harkness

Industrial Relations: a journal of economy and society2025https://doi.org/10.1111/irel.12389article
AJG 4ABDC A*
Weight
0.41

Abstract

Using panel data from the United Kingdom between 2009 and 2019, we study how substantial increases in the real and relative value of the minimum wage impacted on the wage progression of covered workers. We find that progression out of minimum wage jobs is frequent, although most workers remain low paid. Using hazard rate models, we find a short‐lived negative effect on progression associated with the introduction of the National Living Wage in 2016. In subsequent years, we find no evidence of significant adverse effects. We find similar results when we model wage growth directly.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/irel.12389

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@article{silvia2025,
  title        = {{Do High Minimum Wages Harm the Progression of Minimum Wage Workers? Evidence From the United Kingdom}},
  author       = {Silvia Avram & Susan Harkness},
  journal      = {Industrial Relations: a journal of economy and society},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/irel.12389},
}

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Do High Minimum Wages Harm the Progression of Minimum Wage Workers? Evidence From the United Kingdom

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Evidence weight

0.41

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.25 × 0.4 = 0.10
M · momentum0.55 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.