The North African countries and the Arab spring: a different perspective of inequality

What the paper says

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the economic landscape of North African countries during the Arab Spring through the lens of polarization, offering an alternative perspective to traditional inequality measures. While conventional indices suggest stable or declining inequality in Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt, polarization metrics reveal a deepening socioeconomic divide. Using the Forster–Wolfson Index, the Duclos–Esteban–Ray Index and the relative distribution method, this study highlights increasing polarization, particularly at the lower tail of the distribution. The findings suggest that economic bifurcation, rather than inequality per se, played a crucial role in fueling social unrest during the Arab Spring. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses advanced polarization metrics – the Forster–Wolfson Index, Duclos–Esteban–Ray Index and relative distribution method – to analyze household consumption data from Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt. Using national household surveys, this study reconstructs Tunisia’s 2015 consumption distribution from grouped data via parametric imputation. The relative distribution method decomposes changes into location and shape effects, revealing polarization trends. The analysis spans two decades, focusing on subperiods to track distributional shifts. This approach provides a nuanced understanding of economic bifurcation, challenging traditional inequality measures and offering new insights into the socioeconomic drivers of the Arab Spring. Findings This study reveals a significant rise in polarization, particularly in the lower tail of the consumption distribution, across Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt. While traditional inequality indices (e.g. Gini) suggest stability, polarization metrics indicate a deepening socioeconomic divide, with households increasingly clustering at the extremes. This economic bifurcation, characterized by “downgrading” in the lower tail and modest “upgrading” in the upper tail, likely fueled social unrest during the Arab Spring. The findings challenge the narrative of stable inequality, highlighting polarization as a critical factor in understanding the socioeconomic tensions that contributed to the region’s political upheaval. Originality/value This paper offers a novel perspective by shifting the focus from traditional inequality measures to polarization, providing a deeper understanding of the socioeconomic dynamics in North Africa during the Arab Spring. By using advanced polarization metrics and introducing an innovative methodology to reconstruct consumption distribution from grouped data, this study uncovers significant economic bifurcation that traditional indices overlook. The findings challenge the prevailing narrative of stable inequality, emphasizing polarization as a key driver of social unrest. This contribution enriches the literature on inequality and social movements, offering policymakers new insights into the economic underpinnings of political instability in the Middle East and North Africa region.