Persistence of the armed conflict in Colombia: an agreement without peace

What the paper says

Purpose The aim is to analyze the armed conflict persistence in Colombia from 2008 to 2018 based on the financial viability hypothesis (rebellion occurs when war net revenue is nonnegative). Design/methodology/approach The methodology is quantitative. Firstly, a nonparametric Kaplan–Meier functions and survival risk functions are developed as initial approximation. Subsequently, a Probit model with panel data is implemented and the covariates are grouped into three dimensions: opportunity, grievance and institutional-political. Findings The viability hypothesis boosts the continuity of the armed conflict, which is enhanced and perpetuated by the viability and financial incentives from public revenues and natural resources, while the grievance, political fragmentation and institutional dimensions contribute to the opportunity structure in Collier that makes the conflict militarily and economically viable. Research limitations/implications Lack of information for some states in Colombia prevents a much more holistic analysis. Practical implications Postulate what is required by the Colombian State to cut off the sources of financing of armed groups and thus, one of the determinants of the continuity of the conflict. Social implications The political fragmentation contributes to rebellion, and that variables representing the dimensions of grievance and institutional presence contribute to the opportunity structure that makes the conflict in Colombia militarily and economically viable. Originality/value This research proposes as a novelty to incorporate the viability hypothesis with some factors related to the grievance that explain the persistence of the armed conflict as a consequence of decreasing recruitment costs for the insurgent groups, a situation that contributes to the opportunity structure and financial viability of the conflict.