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The Alliance Dilemma and the Onset of War. A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Paolo Rosa & Stefano Benati

Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy2025https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2025-0039article
AJG 1ABDC C
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

Abstract This article seeks to explain the outbreak of war between Ukraine and Russia in February 2022. The cause of the conflict appears to be very simple: Vladimir Putin wanted to go to war with Kyiv. However, as the bargaining model of war states: a conflict takes at least two actors, both of whom are determined to stop negotiating and resort to arms. We argue here that the negative spiral which led to the outbreak of war can be explained as the outcome of three interrelated strategic games that produced a failure in the US/NATO deterrence posture towards Moscow, an unclear (emboldening?) message sent by the US/NATO to Ukraine, and a misunderstanding of Russia’s war aims (limited vs. unlimited) in Ukraine. A formal model is proposed that explains the outcome of the crisis as the equilibria produced by the interaction of the three actors’ decisions.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2025-0039

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@article{paolo2025,
  title        = {{The Alliance Dilemma and the Onset of War. A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict}},
  author       = {Paolo Rosa & Stefano Benati},
  journal      = {Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2025-0039},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.