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Severe Weather and the Macroeconomy

Hee Soo Kim et al.

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics2025https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20220329article
AJG 4ABDC A*
Weight
0.59

Abstract

We investigate the impact of severe weather shocks on the US macroeconomy over the past 60 years. Using a nonlinear vector autoregressive model, we find robust evidence of time-varying effects. While negligible at the beginning of the sample, the impact becomes signifi-cant at the end, where an increase in the severe weather index reduces aggregate industrial production and consumption growth rates, and raises aggregate unemployment and inflation rates. The effects are persistent for up to 20 months. Our findings suggest limited adaptation to the increased severity of weather in the United States, at least at the macroeconomic level. (JEL E21, E23, E24, E31, Q54)

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20220329

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@article{hee2025,
  title        = {{Severe Weather and the Macroeconomy}},
  author       = {Hee Soo Kim et al.},
  journal      = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20220329},
}

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Severe Weather and the Macroeconomy

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Evidence weight

0.59

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.60 × 0.4 = 0.24
M · momentum0.82 × 0.15 = 0.12
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.