What is required for a post-growth model?

Abstract

Post-growth has emerged as an umbrella concept for various sustainability visions that prioritise the pursuit of environmental sustainability, social equity, and human wellbeing, while questioning the pursuit of economic growth. Although there are increasing calls to include post-growth scenarios in high-level assessments, there is no coherent framework that specifies what is required to model post-growth. This article addresses this gap by: (1) identifying the minimum requirements for post-growth models, and (2) establishing a set of model elements for representing post-growth policy themes. We survey post-growth modellers and draw on the post-growth literature to develop a framework of minimum requirements for post-growth models, integrating biophysical, economic, and social spheres and linking them to post-growth goals. Regarding the biophysical sphere, models should include resource use and pollution, environmental limits, and feedback mechanisms from the environment back to society, reflecting ecological embeddedness. Regarding the economic sphere, models should disaggregate households, incorporate limits to technological change and decoupling, include different types of government interventions, and calculate GDP or output endogenously. Regarding the social sphere, models should represent time use, material and non-material need satisfiers, and the affordability of essential goods and services. Specific policies and transformation scenarios require additional features, such as sectoral disaggregation or representation of the financial system. Our framework aims to guide the development of models that can simulate both post-growth and pro-growth scenarios. Such models are needed to inform policymakers and stakeholders about the full range of options for pursuing sustainability, equity, and wellbeing. • We surveyed 38 modellers to identify the elements of a post-growth model. • We propose a framework for models to adequately represent post-growth scenarios. • Post-growth models should represent the biophysical, economic, and social spheres. • Modellers should avoid embedding artificial growth dependencies. • Finance, environmental feedbacks, and non-monetary provisioning remain challenges.