Shocks and reconfiguration in global value chains: A complex network perspective on the global south

Abstract

The growing interconnectedness of supply linkages has amplified the transmission of external shocks through Global Value Chains (GVCs), most notably during the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns about the vulnerability of global production systems. However, existing evidence largely focuses on advanced economies, leaving limited systematic analysis of how disruptions reshape production networks in the Global South. This paper addresses this gap by examining how shocks between 2018 and 2022 reconfigured trade-in-value-added linkages in two labor-intensive sectors—Food & Beverages and Textiles & Wearing Apparel—that are central to export performance in many developing countries. Using updated multi-region input–output data from the EORA database and a network-based analytical framework, we trace changes in countries’ structural positions within global production systems. The results show that GVCs remained broadly resilient at the aggregate level, but this resilience masked significant structural reorganization. Several previously dominant key nodes declined in centrality, while production networks became increasingly regionalized. While China and a few developing economies - including Bangladesh, India, and Indonesia - strengthened their roles as global suppliers, outcomes across countries were heterogeneous, reflecting differences in structural positions and integration within supply chains. At a more granular level, the findings suggest that post-shock GVC reconfiguration among key Asian brokers (India and Vietnam) in labor-intensive manufacturing sectors has occurred primarily through selective regionalization, underscoring the growing strategic importance of regional trade integration for the resilience of Global South economies.