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Drivers of migration flows in the European Union: Earnings or unemployment?

António Afonso et al.

International Labour Review2025https://doi.org/10.16995/ilr.18845article
AJG 2ABDC B
Weight
0.41

Abstract

In this article, we analyse the drivers of international migration in the European Union (EU) using data from 23 EU countries in Bayesian model averaging and quantile regression. Our findings reveal that the association between differences in earnings and migration is twice as strong as that of unemployment and a robust feature in the data. Nevertheless, we find that economic factors play a secondary role, with cultural proximity and the “friends and relatives” effect taking precedence. Our results indicate a limited role for labour mobility as an adjustment mechanism within the EU.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.16995/ilr.18845

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@article{antónio2025,
  title        = {{Drivers of migration flows in the European Union: Earnings or unemployment?}},
  author       = {António Afonso et al.},
  journal      = {International Labour Review},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.16995/ilr.18845},
}

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Drivers of migration flows in the European Union: Earnings or unemployment?

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Evidence weight

0.41

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.25 × 0.4 = 0.10
M · momentum0.55 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.