arbiter
JournalsPricingAccount

Effectiveness and predictability of OECD–FAO medium-term agricultural baselines

Xiaoyi Fang & Ani L. Katchova

Q Open: A Journal of Agricultural, Climate, Environmental, Food, Resource, and Rural Development Economics2025https://doi.org/10.1093/qopen/qoaf024article
ABDC C
Weight
0.37

What the paper says

Abstract This study evaluates revisions in OECD–FAO’s medium-term agricultural baseline projections from 2007 to 2023 for wheat, rice, oilseeds, and coarse grains. Using global projection data, we assess whether projection revisions from 1 year to the next improve accuracy—measured by reductions in absolute per cent error (APE)—relative to initial baselines and naïve benchmarks that assume baselines do not change. Revisions generally lead to lower projection errors, particularly at longer revision steps, though improvements are often modest. We also test for predictability in revisions and find that short-step revisions are influenced by information rigidity, suggesting delayed or moderated incorporation of new information, while longer-step revisions exhibit strategic smoothing. These patterns point to inefficiencies in the revision process. These findings show that agencies can examine projections with high APE during the revision process and focus on fully integrating new data and not smoothing projections.

1 citation

Open paper page →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/qopen/qoaf024

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{xiaoyi2025,
  title        = {{Effectiveness and predictability of OECD–FAO medium-term agricultural baselines}},
  author       = {Xiaoyi Fang & Ani L. Katchova},
  journal      = {Q Open: A Journal of Agricultural, Climate, Environmental, Food, Resource, and Rural Development Economics},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/qopen/qoaf024},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

Effectiveness and predictability of OECD–FAO medium-term agricultural baselines

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.37

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.53 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.