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UNDERSTANDING THE EFFECTS OF BREXIT ON UK PRODUCTIVITY

Stephen Millard et al.

National Institute Economic Review2024https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2024.27article
AJG 1ABDC B
Weight
0.76

What the paper says

Abstract In this article, we use a three-country macroeconomic model of trade, in which we allow for the presence of labour market frictions and heterogeneous firms, to analyse the effects of Brexit on UK productivity. We find that, under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, UK GDP would have been expected to fall by approximately 7.5% in 2021, that is, as soon as the United Kingdom exited the European Union. Our model suggests that UK GDP would then recover, rising back to a long-run level around 4% below where it would have been had Brexit not happened. This fall in GDP is driven by the negative productivity effects of the implied increase in the costs of trading between the United Kingdom and European Union. Specifically, the increase in trading costs will lead to fewer, higher-productivity, UK firms exporting and reduced competition from EU firms in the UK domestic market allows more ‘low productivity’ firms to remain in the market.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2024.27

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@article{stephen2024,
  title        = {{UNDERSTANDING THE EFFECTS OF BREXIT ON UK PRODUCTIVITY}},
  author       = {Stephen Millard et al.},
  journal      = {National Institute Economic Review},
  year         = {2024},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2024.27},
}

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UNDERSTANDING THE EFFECTS OF BREXIT ON UK PRODUCTIVITY

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Evidence weight

0.76

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact1.00 × 0.4 = 0.40
M · momentum0.90 × 0.15 = 0.14
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.