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Predicting replication outcomes and generalizability of results

Anna Dreber

European Review of Agricultural Economics2025https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf035article
AJG 3ABDC A
Weight
0.41

Abstract

I discuss reasons for why false-positive results are produced and published and report the results from large-scale replication projects where laboratory experiments are redone with new data to test the same hypotheses as in the original studies. In some of this work my collaborators and I have also added prediction markets and decision markets to study whether researchers can predict replication outcomes. The results suggest some but not perfect “wisdom of crowds.” I also discuss potential solutions to replication problems, including potential credibility problems and solutions for nonexperimental results.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf035

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@article{anna2025,
  title        = {{Predicting replication outcomes and generalizability of results}},
  author       = {Anna Dreber},
  journal      = {European Review of Agricultural Economics},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf035},
}

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Evidence weight

0.41

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.25 × 0.4 = 0.10
M · momentum0.55 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.