Religiosity as Resilience: Rural–Urban Divorce Responses to Coal‐Fired Power Plant Closures

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between coal‐fired power generator shutdowns and county‐level divorce rates in Ohio using a two‐way fixed effects model. The results show that reductions in coal‐fired generating capacity have no measurable impact on divorce rates in non‐rural counties but are associated with significantly higher divorce rates in rural counties. This rural‐specific effect highlights the heightened social vulnerability of communities with less diversified labor markets, where economic shocks in male‐dominated industries can have broader consequences for family stability. Counties with higher levels of religious adherence tend to have lower divorce rates, and this protective effect is stronger in rural counties where religious institutions play a central role in community life. Demographic patterns further indicate that rural counties with larger young adult populations experience higher divorce rates, while the share of older adults is not significantly related to divorce once other controls are included. Consistent with prior literature showing that transitions away from carbon‐intensive industries create both winners and losers, we find that energy sector transitions can generate uneven social impacts in rural communities that extend beyond employment and income. These findings contribute to and inform emerging just transition scholarship by underscoring the importance of localized social dynamics and family stability when designing equitable transition policies.