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Fertility in the time of depression: the impact of economic conditions on US fertility during the 1930s

Andrew Holt et al.

Journal of Demographic Economics2026https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2026.10017article
ABDC B
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Recent studies have shown that fertility was adversely impacted by the Great Recession of 2008 in both developed and developing nations. We look back further in time to explore how the Great Depression of the 1930s affected fertility rates across the United States. Our main results suggest that a one percent increase in state personal income per capita is associated with a 0.17 to 0.25 percent increase in fertility the next year, which is consistent with estimates found during the post-World War II economy in the United States. Thus, we conclude that fertility decisions were indeed pro-cyclical during the 1930s.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2026.10017

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@article{andrew2026,
  title        = {{Fertility in the time of depression: the impact of economic conditions on US fertility during the 1930s}},
  author       = {Andrew Holt et al.},
  journal      = {Journal of Demographic Economics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2026.10017},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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