The Dollar during the Great Recession: The Information Channel of U.S. Monetary Policy and the “Flight to Safety”

VANIA STAVRAKEVA & JENNY TANG

The Journal of Finance2026https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70025article
FT50UTD24AJG 4*ABDC A*
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Conventional wisdom holds that lowering a home country's interest rate relative to another's will depreciate the domestic currency. We document that, at business‐cycle frequencies, U.S. forward guidance monetary policy easings had the opposite effect during the Great Recession. We attribute this effect to calendar‐based forward guidance that signaled economic weakness, resulting in a “flight‐to‐safety” effect and lower expected U.S. inflation. We also document cross‐currency heterogeneity: a surprise U.S. rate cut induced a larger appreciation of the dollar against currencies that typically depreciate more when the world economy is contracting. We build a model that can reconcile these findings.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70025

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@article{vania2026,
  title        = {{The Dollar during the Great Recession: The Information Channel of U.S. Monetary Policy and the “Flight to Safety”}},
  author       = {VANIA STAVRAKEVA & JENNY TANG},
  journal      = {The Journal of Finance},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70025},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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