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Exploratory analysis of periodic patterns in passenger aircraft orders and their associations with macroeconomic trends

Kazuaki Katagiri & Toshio Takiya

Research in Transportation Economics2026https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101715article
AJG 1ABDC B
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

Since the mid-20th century, global demand for air passenger transport has consistently increased, however, passenger aircraft orders have exhibited significant fluctuations. These fluctuations have imposed burdens on manufacturers, leading to instability and inefficiencies across globally integrated supply chains. This study applies Discrete Fourier Analysis and Cross-Correlation Analysis to passenger aircraft order data and global economic growth rates (1960–2020) to explore periodicity and macroeconomic associations. The results reveal a dominant cycle of approximately 8–10 years, consistent across aircraft types, and suggest synchronization with global economic growth patterns. These findings provide insights for long-term strategic planning in the passenger aircraft industries. • Fourier transform revealed periodic cycles in commercial aircraft orders, with 8–10‑yr pattern. • Trends correlated with economic growth rates.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101715

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@article{kazuaki2026,
  title        = {{Exploratory analysis of periodic patterns in passenger aircraft orders and their associations with macroeconomic trends}},
  author       = {Kazuaki Katagiri & Toshio Takiya},
  journal      = {Research in Transportation Economics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101715},
}

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Exploratory analysis of periodic patterns in passenger aircraft orders and their associations with macroeconomic trends

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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