arbiter
JournalsPricingAccount

Windfall Profits in the German Long-term Care System: Initial Expectation and Variation Over Time

Stefan Fetzer et al.

Public Finance Analysis / FinanzArchiv2025https://doi.org/10.1628/fa-2025-0006article
AJG 1ABDC B
Weight
0.37

What the paper says

In 1995, Germany introduced a Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) scheme. The financing has been set up as pay-as-you-go, and therefore created windfall profits. We calculate an index (IWP) that measures the change in the expected initial windfall resulting from updating financial flows between LTCI and its insureds. Our results show that the level of windfall profits fluctuated for generations living in 1996 and decreased during the period 1996 to 2022. While older generations are less severely impacted, the decrease in IWP mainly concerns younger generations. Demography is not the main driver of these developments, but rather policies regarding benefit levels.

1 citation

Open paper page →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1628/fa-2025-0006

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{stefan2025,
  title        = {{Windfall Profits in the German Long-term Care System: Initial Expectation and Variation Over Time}},
  author       = {Stefan Fetzer et al.},
  journal      = {Public Finance Analysis / FinanzArchiv},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1628/fa-2025-0006},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

Windfall Profits in the German Long-term Care System: Initial Expectation and Variation Over Time

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.37

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.53 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.