Strategic Cops and Robbers?

Giovanni Mastrobuoni & Emily Owens

Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics2025https://doi.org/10.1628/jite-2025-0017article
AJG 2ABDC B
Weight
0.50

Abstract

We propose a new framework to investigate whether criminals exhibit strategic behavior in response to the criminal law and their enforcement. Unique data on commercial robberies in Milan allow us to examine the decisions robbers make regarding weapon choice, number of accomplices, and the type of business targeted. Our analysis explores the relationship between these decisions, the expected return from the robbery, and the probability of arrest, considering the constraints imposed by Italian law, which prescribes differential punishments based on certain criminal choices. We find some evidence that robbers act in accordance with expected utility maximization, particularly when operating in groups.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1628/jite-2025-0017

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@article{giovanni2025,
  title        = {{Strategic Cops and Robbers?}},
  author       = {Giovanni Mastrobuoni & Emily Owens},
  journal      = {Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1628/jite-2025-0017},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.