Proactively Planning for Possible Future Crises

Abstract

Crises faced by regional or national governments are usually caused by either natural or human disasters or by the actions of terrorists or other nations. Decision making in the face of a crisis is difficult because the context typically is complex, and decision makers often have insufficient time or information to thoughtfully make decisions that will manage the crisis well. As a result, they often rely on brief discussions and past experiences that omit key dimensions of the crisis, which results in selection of an inferior response alternative. This article describes concepts and procedures to guide the initial phases of planning for crises so that if and when a crisis occurs, a proactively developed framework provides a sound foundation for quickly structuring decisions and implementing more detailed analyses in advance of taking specific crisis-response actions. Case-study examples are used to illustrate three main elements of our suggested approach: identifying the main dimensions of the decisions to be faced, articulating the objectives that are to be achieved, and generating a set of potentially desirable alternatives to best achieve these objectives. Although the decision analysis and behavioral science methods that we rely on are not novel, proactive structuring of crisis decisions that likely will need to be made quickly has been given only limited attention by analysts and decision makers. Improved recognition of the importance of decision-focused proactive planning should result in better decisions when a crisis occurs, leading to a reduction in the adverse consequences for countries and their citizens. Funding: This work was supported by Ben Delo and Longview Philanthropy.