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GLOBAL AND NATIONAL SOCIAL COSTS OF CARBON UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Jonghyun Yoo

Climate Change Economics2025https://doi.org/10.1142/s2010007826400038article
ABDC B
Weight
0.50

Abstract

This paper characterizes the distribution of marginal climate damages across countries by combining global social cost of carbon (GSCC) and national social cost of carbon (NSCC) estimates within a unified probabilistic integrated assessment framework. Using the RICE50[Formula: see text] model, I estimate the GSCC and NSCC for 200 countries, incorporating uncertainty in socio-economic trajectories, climate sensitivity, damage functions, and discounting. The 2025 GSCC is $194/tCO 2 (5–95%: $135–$275), consistent with recent literature. NSCC is evaluated under a no-mitigation baseline and is highly concentrated: the United States and China together bear approximately 40% of global marginal damages in 2025. This pattern persists through 2100, even as fast-growing economies like Nigeria rise in the rankings. The sum of NSCC under this no-mitigation baseline exceeds the cooperative GSCC, highlighting the gap between the globally efficient carbon price and countries’ unilateral incentives. Variance decompositions show that discounting, damages, and climate sensitivity dominate uncertainty in NSCC, while socio-economic pathways are quantitatively secondary.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1142/s2010007826400038

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@article{jonghyun2025,
  title        = {{GLOBAL AND NATIONAL SOCIAL COSTS OF CARBON UNDER UNCERTAINTY}},
  author       = {Jonghyun Yoo},
  journal      = {Climate Change Economics},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1142/s2010007826400038},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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