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Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy: What have we Learned and to what End?

Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Econometrics Journal2026https://doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utag004article
AJG 3ABDC A*
Weight
0.50

Abstract

We review recent research and experiences linking inflation and expectations, emphasizing what has been learned since 2020. One clear lesson is that the inflation expectations of most economic agents have been and remain unanchored. The unanchored nature of inflation expectations, in combination with supply shocks, can explain much of the inflation surge and subsequent disinflation when viewed through the lens of an expectations-augmented Phillips curve, both in the U.S. and abroad.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utag004

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@article{olivier2026,
  title        = {{Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy: What have we Learned and to what End?}},
  author       = {Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko},
  journal      = {Econometrics Journal},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utag004},
}

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Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy: What have we Learned and to what End?

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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