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Central Bank Narratives and Macroeconomic Forecasting: Using Textual Analysis from Machine Learning

Diego Pitta de Jesus & Cássio da Nóbrega Besarria

IMF Economic Review2025https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-025-00278-xarticle
AJG 3ABDC A
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0.50

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-025-00278-x

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@article{diego2025,
  title        = {{Central Bank Narratives and Macroeconomic Forecasting: Using Textual Analysis from Machine Learning}},
  author       = {Diego Pitta de Jesus & Cássio da Nóbrega Besarria},
  journal      = {IMF Economic Review},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-025-00278-x},
}

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Central Bank Narratives and Macroeconomic Forecasting: Using Textual Analysis from Machine Learning

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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