arbiter
JournalsPricingAccount

Discrepancies in Trade Statistics in 2003–2024: The Impact of Sanctions

Svetlana Golovanova et al.

Economics & Politics2026https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70046article
AJG 2ABDC A
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

This paper is aimed at quantitatively assessing changes in the quality of international trade statistics over the last 22 years and the impact of trade sanctions on the discrepancies between direct and mirror data. Using bilateral flows classified by 2‐digit HS codes for all available nations, we find discrepancies declined until 2019, then surged amid recent global shocks. Panel analysis reveals sanctions' dual effect. Sanctioned countries show lower discrepancies, suggesting stricter customs enforcement reduces errors. Conversely, sanction‐imposing nations exhibit higher discrepancies, indicating statistical opacity shifts to complex supply chains and re‐export hubs used to circumvent restrictions.

Open paper page →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70046

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{svetlana2026,
  title        = {{Discrepancies in Trade Statistics in 2003–2024: The Impact of Sanctions}},
  author       = {Svetlana Golovanova et al.},
  journal      = {Economics & Politics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70046},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

Discrepancies in Trade Statistics in 2003–2024: The Impact of Sanctions

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.